Pre-construction or resale? The break-even decides.

Both paths cost money over the same window. The honest question is not which one “wins” on assumptions you picked — it is how fast prices have to rise before the pre-construction premium pays for itself. That number is at the bottom of the results, and it is the only output here worth arguing about.

Scenario

Start from

Pre-construction price $ Comparable resale price $ Months until you move in mo Interim occupancy after that mo Condominiums only. You live there but do not own it yet, and the fee you pay builds no equity. Set this to zero for freehold. Builder closing costs $

The resale side

Repairs on day one $ What an older home needs immediately. This is the line most comparisons leave at zero, and it is never zero. Maintenance reserve each year $ Monthly fee — resale $ Monthly fee — new build $ New buildings usually start lower and rise. A first-year fee is a marketing number, not a forecast. What you pay for housing while you wait $ Rent, or your current carrying cost. Buying pre-construction means paying this for years while the resale buyer pays down a mortgage — it is the single biggest number people leave out.

Assumptions

Horizon yrs Measured from today, so both paths are judged over the same window. Down payment % On the pre-construction side this is your deposit, paid in instalments long before you move in. Interest rate % Annual appreciation % Applied to both equally. Nobody knows this number — which is exactly why the break-even figure below matters more than the totals.

How to read it

Net position is not
profit or loss.

Both columns are usually negative, because housing costs money. You also got somewhere to live for the whole horizon, which never appears as a number. Compare the two figures against each other — the absolute values are illustration, not a forecast.

What the model counts on the pre-construction side

Deposits paid up front, whatever you pay for housing while you wait, interim occupancy fees where a condominium applies, land transfer tax and builder closing costs at final closing, and carrying costs only for the months you actually own it. For an investor it also counts the rent you did not collect while it was being built.

What it counts on the resale side

Down payment, land transfer tax, lawyer, title and inspection, repairs on day one, an annual maintenance reserve, and carrying costs for every month of the horizon. The quiet advantage is that every one of those months is also a month of principal paid down.

Interim occupancy, the phase nobody explains

On a condominium you move in at occupancy but do not own it yet. Until the building registers you pay an occupancy fee — interest on the unpaid balance, plus estimated property taxes, plus common expenses. None of it goes against principal. On a large project that phase can run six months to well over a year. Set it to zero for freehold, where it does not exist.

What the model deliberately leaves out

Tax treatment, and the return you might earn on money not tied up in a deposit. A deposit sitting with a builder’s lawyer for three years is not earning, not sheltering you, and not paying anything down — that opportunity cost is real and is not counted here. The model also assumes both properties appreciate at the same rate and uses a 25-year amortization throughout.

The part a calculator cannot price

Builder reputation, the quality of the specific site, what gets built next door, delay risk and your own tolerance for waiting. Feras and the team have walked these projects. See current releases ↗

A model, not a forecast. Builder closing costs, occupancy periods and completion dates are estimates that move. Treat the break-even figure as the output that matters and the totals as illustration. Confirm any figure you intend to rely on with your lawyer, accountant and mortgage professional.

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01 —Monthly carrying costMortgage, tax, condo & POTL fees → 02 —Land transfer taxWith the bracket-by-bracket working → 03 —Pre-construction vs resaleFive scenarios, and the break-even → 04 —HST rebate on a new buildWhat it is worth, and who pays it back → 05 —Pre-construction depositsEvery cheque, on a date → 06 —First-time buyer roadmapThe real cash you need, and when → 07 —Sell first or buy firstA reasoned recommendation → 08 —What’s my home worth?A written opinion from a real agent →

Pre-construction or resale? The break-even decides.

Scenario

The resale side

Assumptions

Net position is notprofit or loss.

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Net position is not
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